(Bloomberg) -- American drivers may pay about the same prices at the pump this summer, providing a boon for the Biden administration’s efforts to tame inflation. 

Motorists are expected to pay an average $3.68 per gallon from April to September in the US compared with $3.67 last year, the Energy Information Administration said in its Summer Fuels Outlook report. The 0.3% increase comes even as benchmark West Texas Intermediate oil is expected to rise about 9.7% from last year’s levels. 

Flatlining gasoline prices would provide significant help in policymakers’ fight against inflation since the fuel is a major component in the energy category of the Consumer Price Index. Prices at the pump have recently started to fall as fading geopolitical risks in the Middle East weigh on oil prices. Even if crude rises as projected, the end of a heavy refinery maintenance season is bringing more fuelmaking capacity online, potentially helping keep gasoline prices in check.

The energy department expects motorists in the world’s largest gasoline-consuming nation to guzzle 9.11 million barrels a day during the summer. That’s similar to last year and well below levels seen before the pandemic, when summer demand reached 9.5 million barrels a day in 2019. 

Other highlights of the report:

• Retail diesel prices are expected to fall to $3.93 a gallon this summer, down 4.4% from last year
• Refineries aren’t expected to run as hard as they did last year. They are seen operating at 91.3% of capacity, down from 92.4% in the summer of 2023.

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