Tesla Inc.’s valuation has divorced from how much money Wall Street is projecting the electric-car maker to make in its first two years of annual profits.

Analysts on average are projecting adjusted profit of almost US$5 a share for this year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, well below the more than US$8 a share that was expected as recently as four months ago. Tesla’s stock price has more than quadrupled since mid-March.

Next year, consensus is for a little more than US$12 a share, down from more than US$15 a share earlier this year.

“What has changed to justify the unprecedented rise in Tesla shares? Not earnings estimates -- those have repeatedly come down,” Ryan Brinkman, an analyst at JPMorgan Chase & Co., wrote in a report Wednesday. He has a sell-equivalent rating on the shares and his price target of US$295 implies more than 80 per cent downside from Tuesday’s close.