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Dec 12, 2018

Under Armour shares tumble as long-term growth view disappoints

 Under Armour

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Under Armour Inc. (UAA.N) fell the most in more than four months after its long-term growth outlook disappointed investors.

In its first investor day since 2015, Under Armour said it expects annual revenue growth in the low-single digits from 2020 to 2023 in North America. The company sees revenue growth in Europe, Middle East and Africa in the mid-teens from 2020 to 2022 and the high-single digits in 2023. Revenue growth is targeted at low-double digits in Latin America and in the mid-20 per cent range for Asia Pacific.

Stifel analyst Jim Duffy said the five-year views imply 7 per cent total growth, which looks like “manageable objectives that will likely prove conservative” over time. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg estimate total revenue growth in the 5 per cent to 8 per cent range over that span, with the bulk of that coming from international markets.

The upcoming year is a critical one for Under Armour. After a rough 2017, the company spent most of 2018 resetting its business, clearing an excess of inventory, eliminating under-performing products and improving the time it takes to create and sell product. Executives say the next 12 months will show the power and capability of the new Under Armour. A slide shown to shareholders Wednesday identified 2018’s slogan as "Get to Work" and 2019’s as "Execute."

The shares slid as much as 9.9 per cent in New York, their biggest intraday drop since July 27. The stock has lost 15 per cent over a four-day skid but is still up 42 per cent in 2018.

Ahead of the investor day, Under Armour options were pricing in about a 7.3 per cent move in the shares, and the current implied volatility jumped to 98 per cent versus a three-month average 57 per cent.

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