(Bloomberg) -- Only three Democrats have won a statewide election in Florida in the past two decades. Representative Val Demings hopes to join that club by winning a seat in the US Senate, a chamber where only two Black women have served.

After beating three little-known candidates in Tuesday’s primary with 84% of the vote, Demings will face off in November against incumbent Republican Senator Marco Rubio, who has held the seat since 2011. 

Demings, 65, has a tough, though not insurmountable, task. Two polls this month showed Demings and Rubio neck and neck. A University of North Florida survey of registered voters released Aug. 16 found Demings slightly ahead of Rubio, 48% to 44%.A win for Demings would be historic in a year in which a record number of Black women are running for Congress and governor, including Stacey Abrams's high-profile race to lead Georgia. It also could be seen as a rebuke of the increasingly conservative policies of Republican Governor Ron DeSantis and a GOP-led legislature on issues such as  abortion and what is taught in public schools.

Demings supporters say her background in law enforcement gives her an advantage this fall. The Florida native was tapped as Orlando’s first female police chief in 2007, a post she held in until 2011—capping a 27-year career in the department. Republicans promote themselves as the party of law and order and some voters view Democrats as soft on crime—especially post-George Floyd when “defund the police” became a rallying cry for Americans fed up with police brutality.

“One of the unique qualities she brings to the race is there are very few Democrat candidates coming out of law enforcement,” said Brad Coker, managing director at Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy in Florida. “That makes it a little more interesting.”

Democrats recognize they are vulnerable on the issue. Last month President Joe Biden proposed a new policing plan aimed at addressing Americans’ anxiety about rising crime. And earlier this year Biden joined New York Mayor Eric Adams, another former police officer turned politician, to voice their support for law enforcement and opposition to the defund the police movement.

Rubio, meanwhile, has won endorsements from dozens of Republican sheriffs and the state’s largest police unions. He has tried to paint Demings as unsupportive of law enforcement.

The congresswoman, who has used her background to bolster her pro-law enforcement bona fides, has spoken out against the idea of defunding the police, including in a June ad in which she called the idea “crazy.” She’s introduced legislation that would establish grants to hire and retain detectives focused on homicides and shootings, as well as supported boosting the ranks of smaller departments with signing and retention bonuses. Her husband, Jerry, spent three decades in law enforcement, including time as police chief in Orlando.  

“It just demonstrates that Marco Rubio is a man that is desperate, but I learned a long time ago that desperate people do desperate things,” Demings said ahead of the primary. “Look, I am the police. I think Marco Rubio would like to have anybody running against him in this race but a law enforcement officer, and it shows.”

Third in History?

Demings’ national profile grew in 2020 when she was tapped by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi as an impeachment manager in the first case against former President Donald Trump. She also was on the short list of potential vice presidents for Biden during his 2020 run, before he ultimately chose Kamala Harris.

If Demings wins this fall, she’ll follow Harris and Carol Moseley Braun—who represented Illinois from 1993 to 1999—as only the third Black woman to serve as a US Senator. Democrat Cheri Beasley, the first Black woman to serve as chief justice of the North Carolina Supreme Court, is also seeking a Senate seat in that state in November.

“I don’t want to be hyperbolic when I say this, but it means that we're taking more and more steps toward a more perfect union,” said Tolulope Kevin Olasanoye, national political and organizing director for the Collective PAC, which works to get Black candidates elected and has supported Demings since her 2016 House race. “Representative democracy doesn’t work if everybody is not represented and if everybody doesn’t have a seat at the table.”

Demings—an avid motorcyclist and mother of three—says her history “really exemplifies the American dream.” She’s one of seven children; her father, James, worked as a janitor and her mother, Elouise, as a maid. She was the first in her family to go to college. 

“Along the way I can remember hearing ‘You’re not the right gender. You’re the wrong color. You’re poor.’ All of those things,” Demings said. “But I learned a long time ago to look past my present circumstances and look into a future that really exemplifies what it means to live in the greatest country in the world.”

Abortion Issue

Despite early polling showing a competitive race and fundraising that has outpaced Rubio’s by $20 million since she entered the race last year, Demings faces an uphill battle to flip a Senate seat.

Midterm trends suggest that whichever party is in the White House is at a disadvantage at the polls in the general election. DeSantis, who is  overwhelmingly popular and has amassed a hefty war chest, is at the top of the ticket—and voters are unlikely to split their votes.

“The state also has demographically gotten much more Republican over the last few years,” said Lonna Atkeson, director of the LeRoy Collins Institute, a nonpartisan policy organization at Florida State University. That’s due in part to new residents moving to the Sunshine State who skew conservative and a lack of cohesive messaging from state Democratic party, she said.

Demings is banking that a combination of “quality of life” issues like affordable housing and health care — along with hot-button issues like abortion — will motivate her supporters to go to the polls. (In Kansas, for example, a statewide referendum on abortion fueled high voter turnout, and Democrats are seizing on the issue as leverage against the GOP this cycle.) Demings has been outspoken about the US Supreme Court decision overturning Roe v. Wade. Meanwhile, Rubio has proposed legislation targeting companies that have said they will pay for employees to travel for abortion-related care. 

“With all the priorities we have as a nation, do we really think it’s a priority to take away a woman’s constitutional rights and go back to treating women and girls like they are second-class citizens or property?” Demings said. “Shame on us. Because what’s next?”

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