Global commodity prices are surging anew, with huge double-digit gains running rampant across the scorecard, putting further pressure on an already strained market and sparking fresh anxiety of stagflation.

The market chaos caused by the war in Ukraine hit a new level on Monday amid reports the U.S. is considering a ban on Russian crude imports. That followed a warning by the International Monetary Fund of “very serious” economic consequences from the conflict and related sanctions imposed on Moscow. The rally from oil to wheat and natural gas to nickel is threatening a still-fragile economic recovery from the pandemic, exacerbating an inflationary surge for energy-consuming nations and worsening a cost-of-living crisis for millions.

Here are some of the day’s most notable moves and what they might mean for companies and everyday consumers.

OIL

Brent crude futures climbed as much as 18 per cent to near US$140 a barrel before pulling back as traders weighed the potential for the U.S. to crack down on Russian energy imports. Russia has been exporting approximately 5 million barrels a day of crude, the equivalent of about 5 per cent of global consumption, as well as nearly 3 million barrels daily of refined products -- key fuels such as diesel, fuel oil and a petrochemical feedstock known as naphtha. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analysts estimate a sustained US$20 shock in the oil price will lower gross domestic product by 0.6 per cent in the euro area and 0.3 per cent in both the U.S. and China.

NICKEL

Nickel surged as much as 90 per cent in one of the most extreme price moves ever seen on the London Metal Exchange as fears over Russian supplies leave buyers exposed to a historic squeeze. The metal added US$26,081 a metric ton for the biggest-ever daily dollar gain in the 35-year history of the contract, before closing at US$48,078. Russia is one of the world’s biggest suppliers of the metal, and the fear of sanctions or the inability to ship the metal has spooked an already tight market. More than 70 per cent of the global supply of nickel goes into making stainless steel. Yet it’s the metal’s use in batteries for electric vehicles that has really caught the market’s attention in recent years. 

NATURAL GAS

Dutch front-month gas, the European benchmark, surged as much as 79 per cent to the equivalent of more than US$600 a barrel of oil before trimming some gains as deepening supply fears gripped the market. Price fluctuations were in a range of almost 139 euros per megawatt-hour, the widest gap on record between intraday highs and lows. More notably, the range was equivalent to the actual price just a few days ago. Russia supplies about a third of European gas demand and a cutoff, or even a reduction, could imperil the economy and prolong an energy crisis into next winter. The fuel is primarily used for heating and to generate electricity. Pipeline shipments remain stable, with Gazprom PJSC reiterating Monday that flows crossing Ukraine are at a high level and going as normal. However, traders remain on edge for any potential disruptions.

WHEAT

Wheat prices are on the cusp of a record. The intensifying war in Ukraine is cutting off supplies from one of the world’s leading breadbaskets. Together with Russia, they account for 25 per cent of global shipments. Benchmark futures in Chicago surged by the daily limit for the sixth straight session, rising 7 per cent to US$12.94 a bushel. That builds on a massive surge of 41 per cent last week, the biggest gain in data spanning six decades, and puts prices at their highest since 2008. The Paris contract for wheat breached an all-time high after jumping as much as 11 per cent.

GASOLINE

Pain at the pump is going to get more real for American consumers as gasoline flirts with the highest on record. The average price of unleaded gasoline is now at US$4.065 a gallon, according to AAA, only 5 cents shy of its peak. With Nymex futures surging to a record on Monday, retail prices won’t be far behind as fuelmakers prepare for the onset of the summer driving season. This, despite the U.S. releasing 30 million barrels of oil from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve.