(Bloomberg) --

Kenya’s economy is expected to expand this year as activity resumes following Covid-19 lockdowns, boosting tax revenue and government spending.

East Africa’s largest economy is projected to grow by 6.4% this year and slow to 5.5% in 2022, with scheduled elections seen dampening activity, Treasury said in a report on its website. The economy is estimated to have expanded 0.6% last year.

“There has been an improvement in economic activity in the third and fourth quarters of 2020, albeit at a slow pace, following reopening of the economic, but pickup is weak,” according to the Treasury’s budget policy statement. The economy contracted by 5.7% in the second quarter of 2020, after growing 4.9% in the previous three months.

Other Highlights:

• The finance ministry expects government spending to rise by 3.2% to 2.968 trillion shillings ($27 billion) in the fiscal year starting in July. The fiscal deficit is seen at 7.5% of GDP, narrowing from an estimated 9% in the current fiscal year.
• The financing gap in the coming year will be plugged by net external financing of 345.5 billion shillings, or 2.8% of GDP, and net domestic borrowing of 592.2 billion shillings, equivalent to 4.7% GDP.
• While the economic shock from the Covid-19 pandemic has worsened Kenya’s debt indicators, the government is optimistic that the economy will recover and the debt position will improve.
• “Kenya faces a fiscal risk as the shilling continues to depreciate due to the fact that 51% of the debt is held in external currencies. This has led to increase in debt service budget in local currency and also increase on the stock of debt without inflows.”
• Lending to the private sector grew by 8.1% in the 12 months to November, it said.

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