(Bloomberg) -- Tesla Inc. became one of the most valuable companies in the world by proving it was possible to sell battery-powered electric vehicles at a profit and in high volumes. But for much of 2024, investors have questioned Tesla’s outlook: The stock cratered amid slumping sales, confusing signals about its product strategy and concerns that its aging lineup wasn’t keeping pace. 

Tesla’s erratic leader, Elon Musk, seemed more focused on the promise of an autonomous robotaxi than plans to develop a more affordable electric vehicle that could go head-to-head with competitors like China’s BYD Co. — even though Tesla’s driver-assistance software, known as Full Self-Driving, still requires active monitoring by a human being. 

Now Musk has sent Wall Street a message on both scores: Tesla is becoming an artificial intelligence company, and autonomy is, indeed, its No. 1 priority, Musk declared during an April 23 earnings call. “If somebody doesn’t believe Tesla is going to solve autonomy, I think they should not be an investor in the company,” the chief executive officer said. “We will, and we are.”

At the same time, Tesla assured investors that it’s accelerating plans to launch cheaper models. The new vehicles will be built on the same manufacturing lines Tesla uses for its current lineup and be ready by early 2025, if not before year-end, Musk said.

Tesla still faces many challenges, including high interest rates that are keeping many consumers on the sidelines and competition from both electric and hybrid gas-electric vehicles.

Here’s a look at the challenges facing Tesla. 

Demand Has Weakened

The initial EV buyers were mainly high-income technology enthusiasts who were using EVs as second cars. Now, those buyers are largely sated, industry experts say, and demand growth is slowing as a result: After US EV sales rose by 60% in 2022 and 47% in 2023, they’re expected to climb only 11% this year, according to a forecast by UBS Group AG.

Tesla’s deliveries actually fell by 8.5% in the first quarter from a year earlier, missing Bloomberg’s average estimate by the biggest margin ever. “The EV adoption rate globally is under pressure, and a lot of other auto manufacturers are pulling back on EVs and pursuing plug-in hybrids instead. We believe this is not the right strategy, and electric vehicles will ultimately dominate the market,” Musk said on the first-quarter earnings call.

The first-quarter decline in deliveries was out of character for Tesla. Growth has been central to its value proposition for investors: About 79% of the company’s current valuation is predicated on its future earnings potential, according to a DataTrek analysis.

A big question for investors this year has centered on where the future growth would come from. Tesla’s newest model — the high-voltage, stainless steel Cybertruck — was recalled on April 19 to fix faulty accelerator pedals, and has yet to enter the market in high volume. 

Concerns about growth have made Tesla one of the worst performers on the S&P 500 Index this year. Yet even after the slide, it remains the most expensive stock among the Magnificent 7 group of big tech companies as measured by the ratio of price to earnings. 

Tesla believers say the company is worth the premium because the future of cars is electric – President Joe Biden is pushing for EVs to make up at least half of new US car sales by 2030 – and because Tesla is still the only profitable US carmaker that makes only EVs. Tesla now insists that future is also autonomous. 

Competition Has Intensified

Just as demand wanes, dozens of new EV models are hitting the US market. At least 51 EVs models – including Tesla’s Model S, X, 3 and Y – are already available for sale in the US, up from 32 models a year ago, S&P Global says. Cox Automotive, an industry researcher, expects at least 70 more models to enter the market through the end of 2025. 

So consumers — some of whom are turned off by Musk’s incessant posting on X, the social platform he owns, and by his controversial political comments — have a lot of choices when it comes to buying an electric car. Tesla’s share of the EV market in the US was roughly 51% in the first quarter, Cox says, down from almost 62% a year earlier.

The competition is even fiercer outside the US, where Chinese carmakers dominate. About half of all EVs sold globally are Chinese brands — BYD, the top brand within China, sold more cars than Tesla did in the last quarter of 2023, though Tesla regained the lead in the following quarter. (Almost no Chinese EVs are sold in the US because they’re subject to 25% tariffs.)

China’s EV advantage is in batteries — the most expensive part of an EV. They’re much cheaper in China because of the country’s control of the mining and processing of component materials such as lithium, cobalt, manganese and rare earth metals. UBS analysts say BYD had a 25% cost advantage over North American and European brands in 2023. Its cheapest model goes for $10,000. Tesla’s cheapest Model Y — the world’s best-selling car of any kind last year — is about $35,000 in the US after accounting for federal tax credits.

Musk has repeatedly slashed prices on Tesla models in response to the heightened competition. That has slowed Tesla’s market share losses but has also taken a significant toll on its profit margins.

Product Pipeline Is Still Unclear

Tesla’s next source of volume was expected to be a more affordable model costing roughly $25,000. Musk first teased about such a car in September 2020, saying a series of innovations Tesla was working on would enable it to make an EV at that price within about three years. As recently as January, Musk said Tesla was “very far along” with work on its lower-cost vehicle. 

Then, in early April, Reuters reported that Tesla had shelved plans for the cheaper vehicle to prioritize its robotaxi, creating bedlam among investors. The tension within Tesla over Musk’s desire to focus on the robotaxi is nothing new. It was chronicled by Walter Isaacson, who wrote in his book published in September that the billionaire had “repeatedly vetoed” plans to make a less-expensive model. Musk refused to give any details about a new, more-affordable model when asked about them by analysts on the first-quarter call.

Now Tesla says it’s accelerating plans for new, more affordable models using aspects of a next-generation platform that had initially been slated for the second half of 2025. Using its existing manufacturing lines will allow it to move up that schedule, Tesla says. Bloomberg News reported on April 22 that the new models could be cheaper iterations of the Model Y and Model 3, the company’s two most popular EVs.

Autonomous Driving Is Unproven

The idea of creating an autonomous taxi service has been kicking around Tesla for at least eight years. Musk is extremely bullish on the progress that Tesla has made and lays out a vision in which the company operates millions of EVs in a fleet of robotaxis, a service that would mimic what ride-hailing companies like Uber Technologies Inc. offer.

“The future is not only electric, but also autonomous,” Tesla said in its first-quarter letter to shareholders. “We believe scaled autonomy is only possible with data from millions of vehicles and an immense AI training cluster. We have, and continue to expand, both.”

But the company has yet to offer features that can safely be used without drivers keeping their eyes on the road and hands on the wheel. Tesla has had to recall millions of cars and faced many lawsuits over crashes that involved its driver-assistance system, which is sold separately and has been a perpetual revenue letdown.

Musk made an unannounced trip to China in late April and secured tentative approval from government officials to deploy its driver-assistance system in the world’s biggest auto market, Bloomberg News reported. Advanced driver-assistance systems are becoming increasingly common in China, with many local players including Xpeng Inc. and Xiaomi Corp. using them as a selling point for vehicles.

Musk Is Being Musk

Musk and Tesla have long been almost synonymous: He’s the face of the company and has been the CEO since 2008. His track record of turning startups into money machines makes Tesla popular among professional investors and legions of retail investors. But his unusually close relationship with the board of directors that’s supposed to supervise him has drawn negative attention, for everything from Musk’s $56 billion pay package — which the company is fighting to protect after a judged rejected it — to his alleged drug use.

Shareholder groups have voiced other complaints. One said Musk was distracted by his commitments to other five companies he runs, including SpaceX and Neuralink. His chaotic 2022 takeover of Twitter Inc., the social media company he’s renamed X, contributed to Tesla losing $672 billion in market capitalization that year, the shareholders said.

©2024 Bloomberg L.P.