Ross Healy, chairman of Strategic Analysis Corporation and portfolio manager at MacNicol & Associates Asset Management
Focus: North American large caps

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MARKET OUTLOOK

To look at the market action of the S&P 500, the U.S. dollar and gold bullion and the gold stocks, one would have to throw in the towel and admit that Donald Trump is winning the economic war and the market will rise forever (and the need for gold in portfolios as a hedge against central bank folly and political madness is unnecessary).

Trump now seems to be unstoppable. His war on his trading partners (and anyone else who he doesn’t happen to like at the moment) has served to weaken the currency values of Trump’s target countries (and economic zones) and strengthen the U.S. dollar (although that is the one side effect that Trump doesn’t want). For the time being at least, however, he’s stuck with the currency effects of his policies and the U.S. dollar has been quite strong. The question is: Is Trump winning the economic war or is this a temporary condition which carries the seeds of its own demise?

The Trump trade wars against friends and foes alike are like all wars: no one really “wins” and in the end, everyone suffers in one way or the other. The balance sheet impact for the U.S. is what I’m most interested in – as in the longer run that is what really drives currency values – and the impact of Trump’s actions especially his tax cut policies and the economics of trade wars, are especially likely to be harsh in this regard.

In the shorter term, this is likely to be lost in Trump’s rhetoric and the fallout of his policy moves. I have no market “sell” signal in sight, so I must presume that markets can move higher. But from my perspective, they don’t have that much room to go – maybe the 3,000 level for the S&P. I’m only cautiously optimistic, not rabidly bullish.

TOP PICKS

Ross Healy's Top Picks

Ross Healy, portfolio manager at MacNicol & Associates, shares his top picks: Laurentian Bank, Blackstone Mortgage Trust and Goldcorp.

LAURENTIAN BANK (LB.TO)

BLACKSTONE MORTGAGE TRUST (BXMT.N)

GOLDCORP (G.TO)

 

DISCLOSURE PERSONAL FAMILY PORTFOLIO/FUND
LB N Y Y
BXMT N N N
G N N N

 

PAST PICKS: SEP. 1, 2017

Ross Healy's Past Picks

Ross Healy, portfolio manager at MacNicol & Associates Asset Management, reviews his past picks: Cominar REIT, Alamos Gold and TD Bank.

COMINAR REIT (CUF_u.TO)

  • Then: $13.61
  • Now: $12.37
  • Return: -9%
  • Total return: -3%

ALAMOS GOLD (AGI.TO)

  • Then: $10.27
  • Now: $5.79
  • Return: -44%
  • Total return: -43%

TD Bank (TD.TO)

  • Then: $67.50
  • Now: $78.87
  • Return: 17%
  • Total return: 21%

Total return average: -8%

 

DISCLOSURE PERSONAL FAMILY PORTFOLIO/FUND
CUF_u Y Y Y
AGI Y Y Y
TD N Y N

 

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