What to watch for from Canadian bank earnings
Investors will turn their focus to the first two of the Big Six banks to report fiscal third-quarter results after a week that roiled Canada’s equity and bond markets.
The nation’s biggest lenders make up about 23 per cent of the S&P/TSX Composite Index and on an average total return basis, the eight-company S&P/TSX Commercial Banks Index has been a laggard compared with Canada’s main stock stock gauge this year -- which has gained about 15 per cent including dividends.
“We are trimming our forecasts for the second time in the last month,” Eight Capital analyst Steve Theriault said in an Aug. 14 report, citing weak capital market trends and margin pressure.
Banks are expected to report on average a 6 per cent increase in adjusted earnings per share compared with the prior year, according analysts at firms including Eight Capital and Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM.TO). Royal Bank of Canada (RY.TO) kicks off the reporting season on Wednesday and CIBC the following day.
Bank of America Merrill Lynch analyst Ebrahim Poonawala was also cautious. “We find it hard to imagine that the operating outlook for the banks will be immune to a worsening macro backdrop,” he said. “We are cautious on the group as the risk/reward equation is not stacking up attractively.”
On the economic data front, inflation numbers are due this week, along with retail, wholesale and manufacturing sales.
Global macroeconomic turmoil, geopolitical unrest and a domestic political scandal took center stage last week, in a month that’s typically quiet for Canada as investors escape to cottage getaways, camping weekends and long road trips.
Here’s our weekly wrap of what happened in Canada last week.
Markets -- Just The Numbers
The superlatives are endless: volatility on the S&P/TSX Composite Index surged to levels unseen in more than seven months. Canada joined the yield curve inversion brouhaha with the gap between the 2-year and the 10-year bond turning the most negative since 1990 and the loonie weakened against the greenback amid all the trade angst.
Foreigners sold $5.14 billion of bonds, and $1.1 billion of stocks and investment fund shares, according to Statistics Canada.
Pot stocks had another wild week and tech was in the limelight.
Lightspeed POS Inc. plunged after three of its main shareholders announced they were reducing their stakes in the company. It also scrapped a planned treasury offering of 1.16 million shares, citing market conditions.
In the energy space, Just Energy Group Inc. wiped out about half its value in two days after a dividend suspension and profit-forecast cut. The stock’s record slump has analysts focused on whether the company will be an attractive takeover candidate.
Just two months before Justin Trudeau seeks re-election, the furor over his involvement in SNC-Lavalin Group Inc. has resurfaced. In a report released Wednesday, Ethics Commissioner Mario Dion said the prime minister sought to pressure his former attorney general last year to help the company. Trudeau accepted responsibility “for everything that happened,” even though he disagreed with some of the conclusions.
Meanwhile in Toronto, mayor John Tory, who’s still recovering from an injury, met with celebrity Chris Rock while he was filming for a movie in the city: