(Bloomberg) -- Hong Kong will hold its first major election since Beijing dictated only “patriots” can govern the city, a move that wiped out the pro-democracy bloc and threatens to diminish voter turnout. 

Ninety lawmakers will be elected on Dec. 19, with the public voting for just 20 of them. Forty others will be chosen by a 1,448-member pro-Beijing committee, while the remaining 30 will be handpicked by professional groups.  

But with the city’s pro-democracy camp locked up, in exile or banned from the race -- and all candidates on the ballot vetted for loyalty to China’s Communist Party -- the election looks very different from previous in the former British colony. Hong Kong postponed the vote, citing Covid-19 restrictions, preventing the opposition from riding a wave of popular support after mass protests in 2019 and Beijing’s imposition of strict national security law on the city. 

Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie Lam has denied that the vote is an “all-same-unit” election, saying the 153 candidates standing are from “different political backgrounds.” Her government wants citizens to validate Beijing’s new system by getting enough people to participate, avoiding the humiliating rebuke a low turnout would deliver.

Some 48% said they would “definitely or probably” vote in the LegCo election, according to a Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute survey of about 8,000 registered voters released Friday. For those who support the pro-democracy camp, however, 84% of those surveyed said there wasn’t a candidate worthy of their support. 

Hong Kong’s previous legislative election in 2016 saw a record 58.3% of eligible voters turn out to cast ballots, and giving the opposition its greatest-ever share of seats in the chamber. That compares with a low of 43.5% in 2000, three years after the city’s return to Chinese rule. 

Transportation will be free Sunday to make it easier for voters to reach booths while polls are open from 8:30 a.m. to 10:30 p.m. And for the first time, polling stations on the border will serve the more than 18,000 Hong Kong people living in mainland China who have registered to vote. 

Other measures to ensure participation have been less subtle. Authorities have arrested 10 people for inciting others to cast blank votes, and issued arrest warrants for self-exiled former lawmaker Ted Hui and ex-district councilor Yau Man-chun for the same crime.

On Saturday, the city’s anti-corruption agency said it had issued warrants for another five people, including former district councilor Lee Hin-long, on the same grounds. All five have left Hong Kong, it said.

“We have the responsibility to explain the characteristics of Hong Kong’s improved electoral system and encourage every registered voter to exercise their civil rights,” Lam told the Communist Party-backed Global Times newspaper on Dec. 7. She argued that low turnout could indicate satisfaction with the government. 

“Therefore, I think the turnout rate does not mean anything,” she said. 

 

Delayed Reaction

The opposition once hoped to ride the momentum of its unprecedented landslide victory in the 2019 District Council elections to take control of the legislative chamber. But after the vote was postponed, the central government seized the chance to formally end China’s only experiment with open elections.

In March, Beijing overhauled the body that picks the city’s leader to give it even greater sway, including the power to directly elect 40 lawmakers. In May, the city’s legislature approved a China-drafted plan to create a review committee to vet all candidates for elected office. National security officials now determine whether candidates can uphold local laws and respect the Communist Party.

Both moves came in the wake of widespread street protests against the government, which were supported by the city’s pro-democracy opposition politicians. 

“The Chinese government has given up on opposition parties, as it thinks they have not been helpful but harmful to Hong Kong,” said Ivan Choy, a senior lecturer in politics at the Chinese University of Hong Kong. Beijing wants the government and new legislature to work together to pass bills easily and “without opposition” he added. 

Hong Kong police will deploy more than 10,000 officers on Sunday to secure the election, local media including the South China Morning Post have reported.

For Lam, the outcome could be personal. While only one in three residents support her, according to opinion polls, she is considered the front-runner in the March 27 vote for the city’s next chief executive. That’s because Lam is elected by the revamped committee of Communist Party loyalists, who represent just 0.02% of the city’s population.

With the preparations for Sunday’s election, Lam is trying to tell Beijing she’s made every effort to ensure it runs smoothly, Choy said. “If things don’t go as planned on the polling day,” he added, “Carrie Lam’s chance of being re-elected will be much lower.”  

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