(Bloomberg) -- The European Central Bank will deliver only 50 basis points of additional interest-rate increases this year as the euro zone succumbs to a recession in the fourth quarter, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Economists led by Greg Fuzesi see rate hikes of 25 basis points in September and October. They no longer expect a similar move in December. 

“A front-loaded 50 basis-point move in September is also possible, but we suspect that growth uncertainty will already lead to some caution by the September meeting and will lead to a pause after October,” they said.

The euro-area economy is set to contract through the first quarter of 2023, with inflation and concerns over Russian energy supplies weighing on output.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. this week also predicted a euro-area recession, though analysts there say it’s beginning already this quarter.

For Germany, Europe’s biggest economy, the hope of avoiding a downturn are diminishing by the day, with the country more reliant than most on Russian natural gas.

(Updates with Germany in final paragraph. An earlier version of this story corrected the year in the fourth paragraph.)

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