(Bloomberg) -- Europe will end winter with stronger gas storage than expected due to recent mild weather, which will provide relief to the region grappling with a historic energy crisis, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

Efforts to save energy, coupled with weak Chinese liquefied natural gas imports, means Europe’s gas inventories will be near 30% full at the end of March, compared to a previous outlook of 21% to 23%, Goldman Sachs analysts including Samantha Dart said in a note dated Nov. 15. That gives more wiggle room for Europe to rebuild gas inventories during the summer for the next winter, they added.

“Summer is when storage needs to build,” the analysts said.  “The challenge to once again take inventories to at least 90% full under these circumstances will, in our view, renew the sense of urgency to destroy demand.”

Goldman cut its European natural gas price forecast for summer to 180 euros ($186) per megawatt hour, down 55 euros from a previous outlook. European benchmark futures closed at 124 euros on Tuesday.

The exceptionally mild weather experienced in Northwest Europe since October has led to a sharp drop in gas prices sooner than Goldman expected, the analysts said.

Europe is grappling with a fuel shortage after Russia cut pipeline gas supply to the continent over the bloc’s support for Ukraine. While Europe was able to refill inventories for this winter, it will be much more challenging next year without the flow of Russian gas and potentially more competition from China for fuel. 

--With assistance from Yongchang Chin.

©2022 Bloomberg L.P.