(Bloomberg) -- A far-right separatist party in Belgium’s Dutch-speaking region that was once relegated to the fringes is gaining more mainstream support ahead of national elections in June, which could make it even harder to govern the fractured country. 

Vlaams Belang, which has long called for the Flanders region to secede from Belgium, is surging in popularity in the country’s Dutch-speaking north, notching more than 25% in three different polls this year. In the most recent poll released last week, conducted by Ipsos, it got 27.4% in Flanders. 

The party, whose name means “Flemish Interest” in Dutch, has put capping immigration at the core of its program — something that is fueling populist parties in neighboring Netherlands, where the controversial Geert Wilders has gained in popularity despite being unable to form a government, and France, where nationalist politician Marine Le Pen is making inroads on the mainstream politics of President Emmanuel Macron.

The gains by Vlaams Belang less than three months before June 9 national elections is spurring warnings of paralysis in Belgium — and beyond.

“It is super worrisome and it’s the same phenomenon that we see all across the Western democracy,” said Alexia Bertrand, Belgium’s state secretary for budget and a member of the liberal Open Vld party, which got 8.3% in Flanders in the poll. “These parties are damaging democracy by stating very simple solutions for the most pressing and complex problems. There is an immigration problem — build a wall; there is an economic problem — just Brexit; or there’s an industrial problem — go back to the industry of 50 years ago.”

The party, which the Belgian establishment has openly shunned, advocates limiting access to social benefits for immigrants, and feeds its growing support by “listening to people’s concerns,” according to Tom Van Grieken, 37, who has led it for 10 years. He also said his team would demand the secession of Flanders from Belgium’s French speaking region of Wallonia in five years if his party wins.

”There is a new fight between globalist, open border, all one happy village and all world citizens, and, on the other side, nationalists,” Van Grieken said after addressing his party convention in Ghent last week. “You have a political crisis, a migration crisis and an economic crisis, and the outcome together in June is a crisis of the system.”

Fragile Coalitions

Vlaams Belang’s advance is unlikely to lead to role in Belgium’s federal government, but it could make it even harder for the winning parties in June to form a government. In the 2019 election, a fragile coalition of seven parties took almost 500 days to form a government. 

If the party wins convincingly in Flanders, it will seek a shot at being part of the regional government — a moment that would be a huge turnaround after the party’s predecessor, Vlaams Blok, was convicted in 2004 of violating Belgium’s anti-racism laws. 

If Vlaams Belang is part of the Flanders government, that could throw a wrench into national politics. Belgium’s complex governing system means that topics like agriculture, energy and the environment require consensus decisions by the governments in Flanders, French-speaking Wallonia and the bilingual city of Brussels, which is also the capital of the EU. There’s no major far-right equivalent party in either Wallonia or Brussels.

“The Walloon and Brussels governments will probably not want to sit at the table with a Flemish government, so that would block all forms of cooperation,” said Dave Sinardet, a professor of political science at the Free University of Brussels. “It can therefore also have an impact on European politics and the European position of Belgium. on which governments often have to agree.”

No Consensus

Already, the opposition of the current regional government in Flanders to the European Union’s proposed Nature Restoration Law, which is designed to re-wild 20% of the continent, has meant Belgium as a whole hasn’t been able to pledge its support. The country’s small size usually doesn’t shift the balance under the EU’s qualified majority voting rules, but the margin on this proposal is so tight that it’s on the precipice of failure.

Vlaams Belang is targeting the EU’s climate policies and in particular the Green Deal, a set of policies aimed at zeroing out carbon emissions by 2050. Backers argue that the policies are impoverishing families and destroying the competitiveness of companies.

Bertrand, who belongs to the same party as Prime Minister Alexander De Croo, said that traditional politicians have to question why they haven’t been able to build more trust among the Belgian people. 

“I do understand that citizens are frustrated,” she said in an interview. “We need to go into discussion with the citizens, talk about how politics work and explain why certain of the solutions that this parties, whether extreme right or left — presented as magical, ideal, simple solutions — actually do not work in practice.”

Vlaams Belang won 18.6% of the Flemish vote in 2019, but didn’t join the regional government after mainstream parties refused to negotiate with it. The Ipsos poll, sponsored by leading Belgian media outlets, took place March 11-18 among 2,600 respondents across the three regions, with a margin of error between 3.1% and 4%.

--With assistance from John Ainger.

©2024 Bloomberg L.P.