(Bloomberg) -- India is likely preparing for a drought-like situation despite the forecast for a normal monsoon, due to risks posed by El Niño, according to a former farm secretary.

“If the monsoon is deficient, as is being projected due to El Niño by various global models, then there may be some difficulty in the un-irrigated parts of India,” said Siraj Hussain. About half of the country’s farmlands are rain-fed, and that’s where the impact will come, he said in an interview with Bloomberg Television.

The monsoon plays a vital role in the world’s fifth-largest economy as it determines livelihoods of hundreds of millions of farmers. Any shortfall in showers during the June-September rainy season could hurt India’s crop output, boost food inflation and prompt the government to continue curbing exports of wheat, rice and sugar. 

The government might already be on the job, said Hussain, who also headed the Food Corp. of India, the official agency that procures and distributes grains in India. It has to arrange for more seeds in case germination fails due to poor rains in some areas; provide drinking water; give more diesel subsidies; and ensure enough power supply for agricultural operations, he said.

The government has rightly restricted exports of commodities such as wheat and rice as surpluses are very marginal, and even a small weather event could affect supplies, Hussain said. The official production estimates are also probably on the higher side, compared with what traders are projecting, he added.

--With assistance from Rishaad Salamat, Yvonne Man and Menaka Doshi.

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