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Jan 13, 2023

JPMorgan, biggest U.S. banks slip with wobbly economic outlook

JPMorgan Expenses Under Scrutiny Ahead of Earnings

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Year-end earnings reports from the biggest U.S. banks met less-than-enthusiastic receptions on Wall Street, amid signs that a shakier economy lies ahead.

Beats on revenue and profit didn’t do much to impress investors because forecasts for some key metrics came in worse than expected, and all of the lenders put aside more money to cover loans that might go bad. In most cases, the sums were more than analysts had reckoned.

Wells Fargo & Co. fell 3.7 per cent in New York trading. JPMorgan Chase & Co. slid about 1 per cent, and Citigroup Inc. and Bank of America Corp. dipped about that amount too.

Here’s a snapshot of what we know so far:

JPMORGAN

The biggest U.S. bank said this year’s net interest income will be lower than analysts expected because the economy shows signs of slippage. NII, a major revenue source, will be about US$73 billion this year, below the US$74.4 billion estimate. The forecast followed a record haul of US$20.2 billion from net interest income in the fourth quarter.   

“The U.S. economy currently remains strong with consumers still spending excess cash and businesses healthy,” Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon said in a statement Friday. “We still do not know the ultimate effect of the headwinds coming from geopolitical tensions including the war in Ukraine, the vulnerable state of energy and food supplies, persistent inflation that is eroding purchasing power and has pushed interest rates higher, and the unprecedented quantitative tightening.” 

The company also warned of a “modest deterioration” in its macroeconomic outlook. 

WELLS FARGO

Wells Fargo posted higher-than-expected fourth-quarter expenses, even after the firm warned of a hefty loss tied to a regulatory sanction last month. The firm spent US$16.2 billion in the last three months of the year, exceeding analyst estimates. 

That included US$3.3 billion in operating losses after Wells Fargo said last month it would book costs for a settlement with the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and other legal issues.  

One bright spot: Wells Fargo pulled in a record US$13.4 billion in net interest income in the quarter, a 45 per cent gain, handily beating analyst expectations.

“Though the quarter was significantly impacted by previously disclosed operating losses, our underlying performance reflected the progress we are making to improve returns,” CEO Charlie Scharf said in a statement. “Rising interest rates drove strong net interest income growth, credit losses have continued to increase slowly but credit quality remained strong, and we continue to make progress on our efficiency initiatives.”

BANK OF AMERICA

Bank of America traders beat analysts’ estimates as they reaped the benefits of dramatic market swings, and lending income rose along with interest rates while falling short of expectations.

Net interest income, the revenue collected from loan payments minus what depositors are paid, rose 29 per cent to US$14.7 billion in the fourth quarter on higher rates and loan growth, though the increase was smaller than forecast. Trading revenue soared 27 per cent from a year earlier, with the best results in fixed income, more than the 13 per cent gain analysts had expected.

“We ended the year on a strong note growing earnings year over year in the fourth quarter in an increasingly slowing economic environment,” CEO Brian Moynihan said.

CITIGROUP

Citigroup fixed-income traders turned in a record-setting finale to 2022 as the bank, under pressure to improve returns, braced itself for a less certain economy.

Customers’ bets on rates and currencies boosted revenue from fixed-income trading 31 per cent to US$3.2 billion, the firm’s largest haul ever for a fourth quarter. Total trading was up 18 per cent — trouncing the 10 per cent increase predicted by executives just last month.

“We intentionally designed a strategy that can deliver for our shareholders in different environments,” CEO Jane Fraser said in a statement announcing results Friday. The bank is “very much on track” to meet targets for improving returns, she said.

GOLDMAN SACHS  

The investment bank doesn’t report until next week, but it gave an early look at results from a new division carved out to house what’s left of its once-ambitious foray into Main Street banking. The segment dubbed Platform Solutions racked up more than US$1.2 billion in pretax losses in last year’s first nine months, with the drop accelerating every quarter, the bank reported. 

From the start of 2020 through the end of September, pretax losses piled up to US$3 billion, according to a filing. When the latest quarter’s figures get added to it next week, that cumulative loss will approach US$4 billion in the three-year span and US$2 billion for the year, driven by loan-loss provisions, people with knowledge of the matter said.