(Bloomberg) -- The shocking departure of Jeffrey Donaldson — one of the most prominent Northern Ireland leaders advocating to remain in the UK — has raised questions about the future of the fragile deal that restored government in Belfast.  

The Democratic Unionist Party suspended Donaldson, 61, as its leader in an emergency meeting on Friday, citing revelations that he had been “charged with allegations of an historical nature.” The decision was announced soon after Northern Ireland police released a statement saying that a man of the same age had been arrested on suspicion of “non-recent sexual offenses” and Donaldson deleted his social media accounts.  

The scandal sidelines one of the region’s most important political figures barely two months after Donaldson’s contentious decision to drop a two-year boycott of the devolved local government in Belfast over Brexit-trading rules. The DUP’s return to power-sharing was hailed as a success in maintaining the Good Friday Agreement that has helped preserve peace in Northern Ireland. It as also bolstered UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s efforts to ease disputes with the European Union. 

Donaldson, who had led the DUP since 2021 and still serves a member of Parliament in Westminster, had appeared to successfully navigate internal party rifts to bring the DUP back into the assembly at Belfast’s Stormont, which involved accepting a first minister from the pro-unification Sinn Fein. He spent months seeking concessions from the UK government and trying to overcome more hard-line members of his party, which supports closer ties with Great Britain. 

His exit casts a cloud over the DUP’s long-term role in power sharing. For now, the party has appointed Donaldson ally Gavin Robinson, who was heavily involved in negotiating the deal, as its interim leader. 

Robinson sought to ease concerns about the future of the Stormont agreement, telling the BBC that the DUP has come “together in a unified and purposeful way” to show “the importance of making Northern Ireland work and making sure our place in the United Kingdom is as secure as it can be.” 

Neither the DUP nor police have confirmed the nature of the charges against Donaldson. The police statement said that a 57-year-old woman had also been charged with “aiding and abetting additional offenses,” without identifying her or elaborating further. Donaldson hasn’t responded to requests for comment. 

Robinson said the DUP had only become aware of the allegations against Donaldson late on Thursday, which the party described in a statement as a “great shock” and a “devastating revelation.” He credited the party with taking the steps to suspend Donaldson.

“Opinion polls show the DUP support base is happy the DUP are back,” said Jon Tonge, professor in the Department of Politics at the University of Liverpool. “So in that sense, the institutions are secure.”

The deal brought with it a promise of £3.3 billion ($4.2 billion) of funding from the UK government to help the region’s strained public services. It also helped relieve the threat of further labor action by public service workers who went on strike in January.  

Robinson takes the helm of a party that is deeply divided and lagging behind the nationalist Sinn Fein, which became the largest party in the last election.

However, there could be some longer term pain ahead for the executive in Belfast. Power-sharing relies on a delicate balance of power between unionists — mostly Protestants who want to remain part of the UK — and nationalists — mostly Catholics who want Northern Ireland to be reunified with the Republic of Ireland. The executive has a number of times been dissolved due to political disagreement.

“It would only take a big row over the application of a new EU law to Northern Ireland for voices of disquiet to be raised within the DUP,” Tonge said, “for things to become precarious again.” 

Demographic Decline

But there are broader forces at play: From a demographic perspective, unionism is declining. In 2022, a census showed that Catholics made up the biggest religious group for the first time. That raised profound questions for the region’s typically Protestant unionists, who insist that Northern Ireland remains firmly a part of the UK. 

Sinn Fein’s Michelle O’Neill said in February after becoming the first nationalist first minister in Belfast that Northern Ireland could hold a referendum on leaving the UK and joining the Republic of Ireland within the next decade. The UK is also facing continued calls for another vote on Scottish independence from the Scottish Nationalist Party, which controls the government in Edinburgh. 

There are three unionist parties in Northern Ireland, and overall they have seen their vote reduced since the Good Friday Agreement was reached in 1998. The DUP had tried to bring the unionist parties together as one bloc with Donaldson at the helm. 

But his resignation means “it is not in a position to operate at that level of dominance,” Tonge said. Unionism, he said, “cannot afford a three-way split.”

--With assistance from Rob Fenner.

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