(Bloomberg) -- The bubble in artificial intelligence stocks is nearing a peak, according to Morgan Stanley strategists, who point to the more than 200% rally by Nvidia Corp. this year.

Based on historical context, this stock surge would be in its “later-innings,” Morgan Stanley strategist Edward Stanley wrote in a note. “Bubbles tend to rally a median 154% in the 3 years pre-peak.”

While Nvidia has been the poster-child for the excitement around all-things AI, Stanley says the broader AI benchmarks, like the MSCI USA IMI Robotics & AI Select Net USD Index, have risen far more modestly. The gauge is up about 47%.

The Santa Clara, California-based company has been at the heart of this year’s frenzy around AI and its bullish outlook was proof that spending on AI computing is boosting sales.

To be sure, stocks across the sector do not have uniform characteristics. Therefore, Stanley says that given the idiosyncrasies of individual names, “drawing conclusions on the speed of upswing and drawdown of bubbles can only be usefully or fairly done at an index level.” 

--With assistance from Michael Msika.

(Updates chart, index move in paragraph three.)

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