U.S. Adds 266,000 Jobs in November, Jobless Rate Falls to 3.5%
Treasury yields rose and traders stepped back from fully pricing in a quarter-point rate cut from the Federal Reserve next year after November U.S. job growth trounced expectations.
The benchmark 10-year yield rose three basis points to 1.84 per cent, and is now up about seven basis points on the week. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index gained 0.2 per cent, putting it on track to halt a five-day slide.
The surprising labour-market strength may ease concern that U.S. growth is faltering amid global economic headwinds from the trade war. While traders still see the Fed having to lower borrowing costs, they’re now betting that reduction won’t come until 2021. That’s compared with the second half of 2020 before Friday’s data. Fed officials, for their part, have been signaling they intend to pause after three consecutive rate cuts this year.
“In the last month or so, the recession narrative has started to disappear,” said Tony Farren, managing director at broker-dealer Mischler Financial in Stamford, Connecticut. “This completely eliminates it” unless U.S.-China trade talks deteriorate.
White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow on Friday said the U.S. and China are “still close” to reaching a phase-one trade agreement.
The benchmark U.S. 10-year rate may rise to 1.92 per cent in the next week, the highest since mid-November, Farren said.
The yield retreated a bit after peaking at 1.86 per cent Friday.
Market reaction to the report “is somewhat muted, likely due to the myriad of major risks in the next 10 days,” according to BMO strategist Jon Hill.
That period includes Fed and European Central Bank decisions, the U.K. election and the Dec. 15 deadline for the U.S. to impose more tariffs on China.
--With assistance from Emily Barrett.