Arabica futures were little changed near their highest level since October 2022 as hedge funds exiting the cocoa market are now piling into coffee.

Money managers increased their bullish bets to the highest on record in the week ended April 2, according to the latest Commodity Futures Trading Commission data. Their long positions in robusta futures are also the highest in about seven years.

At the same time, investors have reduced bullish bets in cocoa after a record-breaking rally that saw prices more than double this year.

“We are currently looking at possibly the largest net speculative position in coffee futures in history without a significant story to merit its existence, outside of cocoa market is crazy,” said Ilya Byzov, a coffee trader at Sucafina. “However, once the spigot gets turned on, it takes time for speculative interest to stop and reverse.”

Contracts for the cheaper robusta beans have surged nearly 30 per cent this year on lower output in top exporter Vietnam just as global stocks are getting tighter. That’s stoked the arabica market, which had been subdued by ample Brazilian supply, as traders anticipate that roasters will likely switch to the premium beans.

Embedded Image


  • Arabica futures rose 0.1 per cent to $2.096 a pound in New York while robusta coffee was down 0.1 per cent in London
  • Cocoa futures fell 1.8 per cent to $9,472 a ton in New York. London cocoa retreated 1.5 per cent.