RE/MAX: Interest rate climate and lack of inventory likely to result in softer market this fall
A new report forecasts that Canadian home prices will remain flat until the end of 2023.
A combination of limited housing supply and high interest rates will be the main factors driving a slowdown in the market, according to the 2023 Fall Housing Market Outlook report by RE/MAX, published Tuesday. Meanwhile, national average residential sale prices across all home types are expected to show no change between now and the end of the year.
Thirty-three per cent of Canadians surveyed by Leger who are interested in buying or selling a home within the next year said they will need to wait and see how the interest rate environment unfolds prior to making a move. Another 55 per cent said interest rates will not be a consideration in their future housing plans.
As for housing inventory, 75 per cent of surveyed brokers saw their number of listings decrease between January and July year-over-year -- some by up to 40 per cent."
“While we wait for governments to implement a tangible national housing strategy to boost Canada’s supply of both affordable and diverse housing, the market is starting to ease in some regions,” Christopher Alexander, president of RE/MAX Canada, said in a news release.
“This is bringing some much-needed relief from the sky-high prices we’ve experienced over the past couple of years.”
The country’s housing shortage is having the largest impact on surveyed millennials (49 per cent) and Gen X homebuyers (55 per cent), who said they changed their housing plans due to lack of affordable inventory.
Nationally, 44 per cent of housing markets in Canada are expected to be sellers’ markets in 2023, while the remainder are forecasted to be a balance of buyers and sellers, the report said.
Some markets are predicted to be outliers in which prices are likely to increase, including the Greater Toronto Area, Calgary and Sudbury, Ont.
In Western Canada and the Prairies, average residential sale prices are set to increase this fall by 0.7 per cent to 4.5 per cent, the report said. In regions including the Greater Vancouver Area and Kelowna, sales are forecasted to soften by two to three per cent.
Average home prices in Atlantic Canada are expected to decline between one to two per cent in Moncton, and are likely to remain flat in St. John’s, N.L., the report said.
“If the fall market is an early indicator for 2024 activity, we may see a very active first quarter as buyers and sellers take advantage of easing prices into the earlier part of next year,” Alexander said.
An online survey of 1,517 Canadians aged 18+ was completed between July 21 and 23, 2022, using Leger’s online panel. Leger's online panel has approximately 400,000 members nationally and has a retention rate of 90 per cent. A probability sample of the same size would yield a margin of error of +/- 2.5 per cent, 19 times out of 20.